July 2009
Newsworthy events continued to unfold including TARP repayment, financial system regulatory announcements, details of the Private Partnership Investment Program (PPIP), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) comments as well as the closely watched economic news. All contributed more positively than negatively to the market and to the performance of the financial sector.
The Federal Reserve, after coming to the rescue in dramatic fashion with unprecedented actions and programs to unfreeze credit markets and re-instill confidence in the banking segment, is now beginning to consider the path out of this unconventional stimulus. Although not imminent, as is evidenced by the language of the FOMC meeting, the Fed can, and will when considered appropriate, tighten policy. As expected, they left rates unchanged and committed to continuing the Treasury purchase activity as stresses in the economy remain. Unemployment continues to rise nearing 10% and housing, although showing signs of stabilization in pricing and sales, still has a long way to go. The Consumer Confidence Index meanwhile was below expectations after having firmed previously in May. Overall the economic outlook remained a mixed bag.
In the beginning of June, 10 financial institutions were given approval to pay back TARP. Overall this move has been perceived positively in general for the sector and for those names in particular. On June 17th, the White House announced measures for regulatory reform targeted at further restoring confidence in the financial system and reducing systemic risk. Among the issues proposed were higher capital levels, limits on executive compensation, and holding more risk on securitized products. As the month came to a close, the long awaited and sometimes doubted PPIP details were said to be close to being in action form.
Going into second quarter earnings, a few “one time” variables, including the impact of the FDIC special assessment and the cost of TARP repayment, will weigh on earnings announcements. Robust mortgage and trading operations will strengthen results, particularly in the larger cap names. Solid net interest margins will be favorable as spreads continue to widen. Asset quality, as expected, will remain under pressure. We will continue to participate in opportunistic secondaries, and remain confident in those investments that are well positioned geographically and have solid capital levels and strength in management as we move into the second half of 2009.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are subject to change. Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risk.